Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 3.349278 4.012095 4.752943 5.639612 6.669023 7.823479 9.213034
2025-06-08 2.422537 3.272922 4.324178 5.707770 7.467842 9.617922 12.427218
2025-06-15 1.822096 2.730336 3.953303 5.694806 8.080434 11.199079 15.542450
2025-06-22 1.344665 2.215627 3.482679 5.417499 8.244229 12.159807 17.913792
2025-06-29 1.070860 1.919857 3.241713 5.385596 8.693596 13.502955 20.890193
2025-07-06 0.867402 1.682433 3.033367 5.347591 9.097197 14.786432 23.869434
2025-07-13 0.776161 1.610377 3.068400 5.682883 10.093189 17.022147 28.435288
2025-07-20 0.677319 1.501455 3.018120 5.859894 10.840777 18.926982 32.640251
2025-07-27 0.610463 1.438079 3.034367 6.145931 11.788887 21.218877 37.624644
2025-08-03 0.520260 1.307176 2.901686 6.140055 12.222606 22.691555 41.381872
2025-08-10 0.423520 1.139601 2.667917 5.907378 12.215833 23.405710 43.913772
2025-08-17 0.341579 0.985357 2.432959 5.634378 12.094101 23.893641 46.074582
2025-08-24 0.291638 0.897742 2.327927 5.615855 12.466639 25.314402 50.017941
2025-08-31 0.253073 0.829690 2.254779 5.653986 12.954165 26.985963 54.538965
2025-09-07 0.216784 0.758099 2.160271 5.630883 13.312191 28.440091 58.764826
2025-09-14 0.173623 0.653937 1.966369 5.352942 13.104002 28.785598 60.941788
2025-09-21 0.148783 0.597945 1.883285 5.320209 13.413479 30.162449 65.165829
2025-09-28 0.127529 0.546923 1.803291 5.282211 13.704279 31.519429 69.437211
2025-10-05 0.121880 0.548024 1.867506 5.613752 14.863217 34.733728 77.573439
2025-10-12 0.111508 0.529055 1.870935 5.788815 15.675825 37.282524 84.529755
2025-10-19 0.105177 0.523563 1.913240 6.071780 16.768726 40.496299 93.022602
2025-10-26 0.091921 0.486337 1.851934 6.065961 17.165909 42.244486 98.606848
2025-11-02 0.075516 0.429645 1.717245 5.835765 16.986573 42.719618 101.563897